[4] "Polarization, Regime Switch and Economic
Policies in
the Process of Economic Development" 2008 mimeo
[Long version] [Short version]
[Abstract]
[5] "Long-run Growth and
Poverty Traps in an
R&D-based Growth
Model
with Endogenous Raw and Educated Labor Supply" 2006,
21COE
IAEA Discussion Paper
No.101 Kyoto
University. [Downloadable]
[6] "Polarization, Catch up, and International
Specialization in an Integrated Model of Human Capital Accumulation and
R&D", 2006, 21COE
IAEA Discussion Paper
No.103, Kyoto
University. [Downloadable]
[Abstract]
■Regime Switch
"The Mechanics of Economic Growth
through CapitalAccumulation and Technological Progress"
Abstract
This study develops a model in which capital is used in the production
of final goods and R&D activities. This arrangement generates
changes in the equilibrium capital allocation in proportion to the
capital accumulation, which engenders a regime change from
capital-based growth with decreasing returns to R&D-based
perpetual
growth. These two growth phases account for the polarization of
economies. A non-occurrence of this regime change will suspend an
economy's growth, leading it into a poverty trap. The multiple
equilibria on capital allocation, which emerge during the middle stages
of capital accumulation, account for leapfrogging and the instability
of economic growth.
Keywords:
Capital
accumulation, R&D, Regime change, poverty traps, polarization.
"Dynamical Analysis of the R&D-based Growth
Model with a Regime Switch"
Abstract
Several
empirical studies suggest that advanced economies experience a growth
regime switch from factor accumulation to knowledge accumulation. To
investigate the mechanism of such a regime switch, this study develops
a concise and flexible dynamic model based on Romer (1990) by
introducing two types of endogenously supplied R&D input capital.
The model replicates the growth patterns of developed and
underdeveloped nations, clarifies the important role that capital plays
in the difference between them, and presents several implications for
interest-rate subsidies and official development assistance. Further,
it shows that if a country enjoying long-run growth has little initial
capital, its initial economic development will be based on capital
accumulation. When the capital stock becomes sufficient for supporting
R&D, the economy will achieve long-run growth through R&D.
Keyword: dynamics of regime
switch, capital-accumulation-based growth, R&D-based growth,
effectiveness of economic policies
"Multiplicity and Stagnation under the Romer
Model with Increasing Returns of R&D"
Abstract
This study develops a simple growth model to explain stagnation and
non-simple growth patterns by using increasing returns of R&D
efficiency. The study adopts a type of the lab-equipment model, namely,
the Romer model, where goods are used as R&D input. Here, we assume
capital, or durable goods, as the R&D input factor, and R&D
efficiency is assumed to be variable. This arrangement yields three
steady states, namely: no-growth, low-growth, and high-growth steady
states. These trajectories are jumpable. Accordingly, global
indeterminacy is obtained. By uniting the numerical analysis, we obtain
that all steady states are saddle stable. However, when the increasing
R&D efficiency is small, the path converging to a high-growth-rate
steady state shows local indeterminacy.
"Does international knowledge
spillover always leads to a positive trickle down?"
Abstract
This paper demonstrates the negative
effects of positive
international knowledge spillovers on economic growth. In other words,
we obtain the possibility that educational investment for human capital
is crowded out under global economic growth. To this end, we assume the
phenomenon of international knowledge spillover, effects of population
growth on human capital accumulation, and non-unity intertemporal
elasticity of substitution in an endogenous growth model along the
lines developed by Arnold. This model comprises R&D activities
along the lines proposed by Jones and human capital accumulation along
the lines proposed by Uzawa and Lucas. The results show that even if
international spillover increases, low-growth traps without human
capital investment emerge in some cases, for example, an economy with a
large intertemporal elasticity of substitution and a high population
growth rate.
Keywords: R&D-based growth;
human capital accumulation; international knowledge spillover
"Management Ability,
Long-run Growth, and Poverty
Traps"
Abstract
This study establishes an R\&D-based growth model that includes
the
functional difference between labor and human capital in the production
of goods. In our analysis, the human capital is used by the managers in
the manufacturing process. Such an allocation of human capital yields
three possible steady states: endogenous growth, poverty traps, and
multiple equilibria. Economies are sorted into these steady states
according to the endowments of labor, human capital, and knowledge.
Thus, the obtained steady states explain some economic growth patterns,
such as polarization and leapfrogging of economies.
"Polarization, Regime
Switch and Economic
Policies in the Process of Economic Development"
Abstract
This study develops an eondogenous growth model that depicts the
process of economic development, such as a regime switch from
capital-accumulation-based growth to R&D-based growth and the
phenomenon falling into poverty traps. Furthermore, we also obtained
several implications of economic policies, as follows.
Interest
rate subsidies promote economic welfare. Development aids through the
provision of factor stocks such as capital and technology are
ineffective for an economy to ride on a steady growth path. Promoting
efficiency in goods production and/or R&D, on the other hand,
is
effective.
Keywords:
Polarization of
economies, R&D-based growth, poverty traps, regime switch of
growth
engine, effectivity of economic policies
"Polarization, Catch
up, and International
Specialization in an Integrated Model of Human Capital Accumulation and
R&D"
Abstract
The endogenous growth model has given a central role for long-run
growth on knowledge. The present paper develops an
endogenous growth model with both non-embodied and embodied knowledge
accumulations (respectively R&D activities and human capital
accumulation), and international non-embodied knowledge spillover, and
demonstrates the role of the knowledge on both autarky and
international economies. In the autarky model, there exist two types of
steady growth path; one is the growth path with positive educational
investment, and the other is semi-endogenous no education trap. Opening
up the model by introducing international knowledge spillover, the
countries both in positive education may show some growth patterns such
as catch up, polarization, and international specialization.
Keywords: R&D-based
growth, human capital accumulation, international knowledge spillover
"Multiple Steady States and Indeterminacy in the
Uzawa-Lucas Model with Educational Externalities" Abstract
This study attempts to endogenize educational
efficiency, a critical exogenous parameter in the Uzawa--Lucas model,
where human capital accumulation plays an important role in economic
growth. Human capital accumulation is a puzzle; in addition to the
broadly recognized positive spillover of human capital, educated human
capital productivity occasionally shows a decreasing trend in the
economic growth process (Jones 1995; Pritchett 2001). Incorporating
these phenomena as educational externalities into the Uzawa-Lucas
model, we analyze the properties of endogenous growth and stagnation.
The model yields multiple steady states under intertemporal
substitution elasticity larger than 1. The results reveal that a steady
state with a higher growth rate demonstrates indeterminacy, and the
selection of the steady states depends on expectation formation.
Keywords:
Uzawa-Lucas model; Negative Growth Effects on Education; Educational
externality; Local and global indeterminacy
■Labor and Leisure Choice
"An Economic Growth Model with Education and
Industriousness" (with N.Hobara) Abstract
This study investigates the relationships between long-run growth,
education, and “industriousness” using an extended Uzawa-Lucas model
with labor-leisure choice, where “industriousness” is captured by the
propensity for labor-leisure choice. The extension describes shifts
from economic stagnation to long-run economic growth through the
structural change of “industriousness,” a growth path within the de
Vries’ “industrious revolution.” A domain that generates multiple
steady states exists in the middle range of the industriousness
parameter, implying the existence of middle-income traps. Although the
range is narrow, it can be broadened by, for example, higher population
growth.
"Decreasing Labor
Supply, R&D-Based Growth, and Instability of Economic Dynamics "
(with F.Zhong) Abstract
With continued growth in developed countries in the last few decades,
the number of hours worked has gradually declined. Furthermore, some
empirical evidence shows emerging economies’ and long-run experiences
of advanced economies’ decreasing labor despite restrictions on labor
statistics.
To replicate these phenomena, we develop a model with endogenous
technological change and endogenous labor supply. We find that adding
increasing returns of research and development efficiency, at least for
the small input, yields the economic path accompanying the decreasing
labor supply. Furthermore, the path is stable (not saddle stable);
therefore, the steady state has multiple paths under rational
expectations, which yield local indeterminacy. This reflects the modern
economic shocks occurring intermittently in both advanced and emerging
countries. Moreover, the model contains a steady state with no-growth
trap, and selection among steady states is possible. Our model has
global indeterminacy, which is one of the mechanisms for eventuating
economic growth.
"Luxury-based Growth"
Abstract
Assuming that there exists a preference for luxury goods and a
knowledge spillover from luxury goods production to goods production,
this paper constructs an endogenous economic growth model. The model
predicts two steady states: one is a steady positive growth state with
regard to luxury goods production, and the other is a zero growth state
in the absence of luxury goods production. Thus, this study examines
the polarization of economies based on luxury goods consumption.
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